Further Signs of Decline? U.S. Fertility Rate Hit Historic Low in 2012

500px-US_CDC_logo.svg

Patulcius:

Patulcius-sqVia LifeSiteNews

The U.S. fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2012, according to the latest statistics released by the Center for Disease Control (CDC).

According to the CDC, in 2012 3,952,841 births were registered in the U.S., which was 749 fewer than in 2011. This translated into a total fertility rate of 63.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, down from 63.2 births in 2011.

While a fertility rate of about 2.1 babies per women over their lifetime is required to maintain a steady population in developed countries, in the United States it currently sits at 1.88, down from 1.89 in 2011.

The country’s fertility rate first dipped below replacement level in 2010.

But while the fertility rate has declined every year for the past five years, the CDC reports that the decline slowed down between 2010 and 2012.

Meanwhile, the average age of women who become mothers for the first time rose to 25.8 years. Delayed child-bearing is one contributor to decreasing birth rates across the west.

Live Births and General Fertility Rates

How long will our nation stand when its people won’t even bother to reproduce themselves?

It is a sign of our overall decline, though not of our imminent fall. The clever Romans limped along for hundreds of years with a low birthrate. It’s amazing how long a nation can drag itself along after its people have grown self-centered and hedonistic. But are Americans as clever as the Romans? Our decay seems very rapid compared to theirs, and our collapse might arrive more quickly as well.

The CDC also found that the number of babies born to non-married mothers remained steady, at 40.7 percent. However, “The nonmarital birth rate was 13 percent lower in 2012 than in 2007 and 2008, when it was at its historic peak of 51.8 per 1,000,” the CDC study observes.

A third generation of children from broken homes—many raised with a minimal presence of a father and within dysfunctional households—also bodes poorly for the future of our nation. The sad bastard child-man, Barrack Obama, is a fine specimen of the kind of broken and incompetent leadership that we can expect to see more commonly in the future.

Some demographic forecasters have linked the decline in birth rate over the past five years to the economic recession, and predicted that with relative economic stability in place, birth rates should begin to climb again.

“The United States has seen marked declines in childbearing in the wake of the Great Recession [which began with the financial crisis of 2007-2008], but we think that this fertility decline is now over,” Sam Sturgeon, president of Demographic Intelligence, told USA Today last fall.

Our economy is on the road to recovery! The media reports this nonsense with the wide-eyed sincerity of children reporting the gifts that Santa Claus will surely bring them. Do these blathering heads believe their own lies?

It is more likely that we’re in the middle of a long-term economic depression. Despite manipulated unemployment and inflated Dow Jones numbers, the economic situation of the US is still grim and shows no signs of meaningful improvement.

None of the fundamental factors that created the Great Recession has been addressed. We still have high energy prices, political instability, and plenty of toxic debt in the banking system.  Retiring Baby Boomers continue to join a growing section of the population—rich or poor—whom the government totally supports.  The government continues to accumulate large amounts of public debt that the Federal Reserve increasingly finances with less expectation that any of it can be financed by future growth and inflation. Add to the mix the debacle of ObamaCare, and we have no end in sight to a crippled economy.  Road to recovery!

However, Mary Mederios Kent of the Population Reference Bureau expressed skepticism about more optimistic projections.

“The question remains, will fertility bounce back when the economy improves, or will low fertility become the norm for Americans, as it has for Canadians and Europeans?” she asked.

“Even at its current low level,” she wrote, “the U.S. rate is higher than nearly every developed country, and these countries also experienced fertility declines during the recent recession. Will couples eventually have the babies they postponed during the recession?”

Mary Mederios Kent is right to question the optimistic projections.

Parts of the non-Hispanic White and most of the Black populations have very low fertility rates similar to those in Europe and Japan, and the fertility rates of these groups are likely to decline further with time regardless of economic improvement.

Other areas, such as Mormon-dominated Utah and Idaho, along with (oddly) many of the plains states, have relatively high fertility rates that will likely bounce back after the depression finally ends. While Utah’s rates have fallen more than other areas of the country since the Great Recession began, the Mormons in particular show a fecundity not only in childbearing but in productivity overall, and their fertility will likely restore itself.

Overall, barring some dramatic change in the culture, post-depression fertility rates will likely show a modest rise before resuming their gradual decline.

US-Total-Fertility-2010

Clusivius:

Clusivius-sq

Things aren’t good for the United States and the West overall, but conditions don’t remain static.

While the West is certainly in a state of decline, it probably has at least a couple of hundred years of life remaining. As Patulcius wrote above, a nation can limp along for centuries as it declines.

The fundamentals of the US economy are not so terrible as they might seem. Thanks to hydraulic fracturing, we are in the beginnings of an oil boom and we currently export more oil than we import. Our industrial base, while not as great as in our heyday, is still quite large and reasonably stable. We still possess the world’s largest economy, accounting for 19.5% of world GDP. (China is next at only 14.7%. Of course, the European Union is slightly larger as a whole, but this doesn’t detract from the overall point.) We still attract the greatest minds in the world to live and work here and our economy is still free enough that a person can hope to grow rich when starting a business with nothing. Certainly there are signs of decline, but many of our fundamentals are still strong.

Our birthrate remains above that of other developed countries. When the depression is over, it will likely return to near-replacement levels, largely because of the Hispanic and Mormon populations, as previously mentioned.

The Hispanic population should not be written off so blithely. Unlike Europe’s Muslim immigrants, Hispanics show signs of assimilation where they don’t overwhelm large regions of the country with their numbers, and they are Christian. So long as they don’t dominate too great an area, as they do in southern California, their numbers should be manageable and could be beneficial to the long-term survival of the country. Like the Germans in Rome, Hispanic immigrants do present some problems, but perhaps like the Germans helped the post-Roman world, the Hispanics might help the people of the United States, in whatever form they might ultimately take, after the fall of the West to rebuild under their next civilizational incarnation.

In other words, it’s not necessarily the end of the world.

Concorditas:

ConcorditasWhile leaders can change and countries can change course, the culture of a nation is harder to change.  And even if the moral fabric of a nation is somehow restored, its cultural integrity upheld, and its economy restored, the demographic decline of a nation takes generations to reverse.

Putin’s Russia is a good example.  In general, the Russians seem to have returned to their cultural roots, but their demographic decline is causing many problems with their economy and with their security.  These troubles might destroy the Russian nation in the long run even if we assume that the Russians will remain focused on the reconstruction of the foundations of their civilization.  It takes people to make a society function, and the Russians aren’t making enough.  And neither are we.

That is why a seemingly minor demographic indication like the low fertility rate is so troubling for the future.

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12 Comments

  1. Reblogged this on Brittius.com.

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  2. Richard M Nixon (Deceased)

     /  14 January 2014

    Reblogged this on Dead Citizen's Rights Society.

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  3. I should think the birth rate will continue to drop as the population gets weaker and less fertile due in part to the wonderful assortment of GMO, and chemically “enhanced” foods we as a nation continue to consume…

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    • I’m sure that chemicals and toxins make their contribution to low sperm counts and infertility, but most of the low fertility rate seems to be culturally driven.

      Our society doesn’t value child-rearing, and often denigrates it, considering it a nice thing for other people but not for the cool. And quite a few people don’t want their lifestyles hampered by the costs and responsibilities that children bring.

      Varying degrees of this mindset even affect most parents, myself included. Having more children would not only reduce our own standard of living, it would reduce the standards of our existing children. So it’s not even entirely selfish. Just partly.

      There are other motivations. Some don’t want to raise children in a screwed up world, so they don’t have any. Or they themselves are screwed up and don’t want to ruin the lives of any children—a wise decision really.

      But in any case it is a sign of a declining civilization when enough people consider their own comfort before their family’s long-term establishment and destiny. When it results in below-replacement population growth, it is a major long-term problem.

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  4. The replacement rate is an average, so some women have more and some have less. The question is who are the women having more? Are we headed for an Idiocracy scenario?

    “Hispanics show signs of assimilation where they don’t overwhelm large regions of the country with their numbers, and they are Christian”

    Clusivius is a bit optimistic, I think. Even muslims keep their heads down when their numbers are low. La Raza recognises that they and their culture are distinct from us Anglos and they want to be themselves.

    I am also expecting a large scale conversion to islam among hispanics, probably beginning with the criminal element who are already involved with hisbollah and various other groups through the drugs and arms business.

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    • We already have the Idiocracy now.

      Fortunately the bulk of Democratic supporters—White urbanites, White devotees of alternative “lifestyles” and Blacks—have low birthrates with the exception of Hispanics. Birthrates aren’t the greatest among the conservatives either, but they are larger than liberals.
      Without immigration, the progressive liberals would be slightly worse off than the
      conservatives.

      The Hispanic question is difficult without more in-depth research. We currently
      see a 2-1 lean towards the Democrats in the overall Hispanic vote. It’s tempting to assume that even after they superficially assimilate that Hispanics would continue to lean towards handout voting for generations to come because other ethnic groups have retained elements of their cultures and voting patterns long after they have assimilated.

      But my Clusivius side is encouraged at signs of Hispanic assimilation, such as intermarriage rates and the high incidence of Protestant conversion, that suggest the possibility that they pose no long-term harm to individualistic or traditional politics. Is it possible that Hispanics could become conservative (as we now loosely define the term)? Very doubtful. It’s roughly the same fallacy as the Republican dream of the Hispanic conservative. But Clusivius is thinking more in terms of centuries, however, than decades.

      Muslim conversions in the Hispanic population present a remote, but definitely real, problem in that they bolster a group of people—Muslims—who are incompatible with Western culture, and even a small percentage of Muslims poses a real threat. People feared such a mass conversion among American blacks in the 1960’s, but such an event hasn’t happened. It’s been more of a small but steady flow, and probably the Hispanic conversion will follow a similar trend. But could the conversions hit a critical mass? It will be interesting to see if you are right in your prediction.

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      • Centuries if hispanic immigration and reproduction will mean a hispanic US. Conservative and liberal as we define them today will be meaningless. In fact, combined with all of the immigrants from around the world, it won’t take centuries for the US itself to cease to exist, probably divided up into ethnic enclaves since most people aren’t as egalitarian as we crackers are.

        Blacks who convert to islam tend to be from the criminal population and that’s where i expect the hispanic islamisation to start. The hispanic criminal population is much larger than usually stated and much more organised than the black criminal element. They are the coyotes who bring illegals over the border and, in fact, control large areas of the border. They can decide who comes to the US and who doesn’t so it won’t take a mass conversion to be a problem for us, in fact Latin America could remain Catholic and we could still be overrun by “muslicans”.

        Only time will tell. Worst case scenario is we are still around when it does! Or maybe that’s a best case? Only time will tell?

        Here’s an organisation that tracks illegals’ crimes in NC, I don’t know if there’s a national version, but i would assume so:

        http://www.ncfire.info/

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      • Addendum:
        While the hispanic culture is more compatible with ours than, for instance, Middle Eastern or African cultures, it is still very different. Its a case of lesser of two evils. A few million more hispanics and we’ll be fighting a hot culture war, something that they have more experience with.

        One culture, one set of values, must be dominant for society to function.

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      • The great question is whether our our civilization is heading for collapse or if the new world order will be able to uphold our technology-induced indifference.

        If society collapses, or even declines enough, then immigration will effectively halt, and many first or second generation immigrants will flee if they can. Mexicans will remain in areas they dominate, but this leaves large portions of the country still dominated by American whites.

        If society keeps racing forward with its technological, nihilistic post-humanity, then it’s a moot point anyway.

        It could be like Europe and the fall of Rome. Germanic culture swept into Western Europe and took control. Some areas retained their Mediterranean culture and Romantic languages while others became Germanized. Something like that could ultimately happen in America. I expect many areas to remain predominantly white and Christian.

        Worst case scenario is we are still around when it does! Or maybe that’s a best case?

        As terrible as it would be, the sooner we have a collapse, the better for the side of tradition and individual liberty. Those things will not long survive the corrosion of this Satanic poison.

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