A New Mini Ice Age in the Near Future?

574px-Thomas_Wyke-_Thames_frost_fair

A River Thames frost fair in London during the Little Ice Age.

– 14 July 2015 –

Clusivius:

Clusivius-sqContrary to the predictions of global warming zealots, another doomsayer in the UK says that we are heading for a mini Ice Age:

A British professor’s new model of solar cycles predicts that the Earth could be heading toward a “mini ice age” that would create conditions not seen since 1645 during the “Maunder minimum” – when London’s Thames River froze over.

Solar activity may fall by as much as 60 percent during the 2030s, according to Mathematics Professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University in England.

While I have no understanding of whether the predictive models that Professor Zharkova has created bear any resemblance to reality, the predicted outcome itself seems quite possible to me. We are so far experiencing the weakest solar cycle in 100 years. Contrary to the falsehoods of the media, our winters have been getting colder for the past four or five years. Not that it’s scientifically useful, anecdotal observations of the last two winters in North America and the U.K. at least have been particularly nasty.

We are just coming out of the solar maximum which peaked in 2013, and sunspot activity will remain low for the next six or seven years at least, the beginning of the rise to the next solar maximum. If climate indeed corresponds to sunspot activity, we might see even colder winters for the next five to ten years.

There is some scientific debate about whether sunspot activity correlates to climate on Earth, but three periods of low sunspot activity, including the Spörer Minimum from 1460 to 1550, the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1715, and the Dalton Minimum from 1790 to 1830, occurred during the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1350 to 1850. Interestingly, in the image below, a graph of solar activity extrapolated from radiocarbon measurements, a sudden spike in temperature starts around the year 1900, the same time period that the globalists say our carbon emissions began to raise the temperature of the Earth.

800px-Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg

Interestingly, solar activity sharply increases around the year 1900, the same time that global warming fanatics say that humans began to change the climate with CO2 emissions.

When one looks at another image of glacial and interglacial periods, seen below, the most recent interglacial period appears to show our current peak already about as wide in time as most of the previous interglacial spikes. If our spike matches the average previous spikes, then between now and 10,000 years from now, we should see a rapid decline in global temperatures as the world returns to the next glacial period.

Ice_Age_Temperature

The current interglacial spike is already as wide in time as the average spikes of the past. We are due for a sudden drop in temperatures anytime between now and the next 10,000 years.

We are supposed to be alarmed by the thought of global warming. How many maps have I seen that show the flooded Central Valley of California, or half of Florida underwater? What those maps fail to show is the newly temperate lands in Canada and Siberia, or the habitable shores of Antarctica. More free water means more rainfall overall, and we could expect some of the world’s deserts to bloom. Higher world temperatures don’t mean the end of the life on Earth as the global warming alarmists would suggest. During the Atlantic Period of the current Holocene Epoch, roughly from 5,500 BC to 3,000 BC, sea levels were generally 3 meters higher than today’s levels. Somehow humanity survived; in fact, this is the time of the rise of humanity’s first great civilizations. This is also the time of the “Green Sahara“, when crocodiles and hippos lived in several lakes in a great savannah where nothing but sand exists today.

Ice Ages are another story. Colder temperatures not only mean a shorter agricultural growing period for much of the world, but the increase in ice levels reduces the available water in the atmosphere and creates generally drier conditions. During the last Ice Age, for instance, Africa’s rainforests were reduced to a small fraction of today’s, even accounting for man-made deforestation. All of today’s desert areas were even drier during the last Ice Age. The onset of even another mini Ice Age, with today’s enormous world population, could mean the starvation of millions of people.

forest-desert-last-ice-age-compared-to-present

During the last Ice Age, deserts were larger and more arid than those of today. During the mid-Holocene, when temperatures were warmer, extreme deserts were rarer than today.

Personally I do not know whether or not to believe in the idea of man-made global warming. The issue is too politicized to take the data of either side seriously. All I know is that the dire predictions that the alarmists have made for the past fifteen years have failed to pan out. This isn’t to say that humans cannot affect the world’s climate, as we clearly already have altered localized climates through, for example, deforestation, urbanization, irrigation, and the construction of artificial dams. It’s not out of the question that the burning of millions of tons of fossil fuels may have some long-term effects on the climate, but it’s obvious that scientists have quite a bit to learn about the checks and balances that God has created to control the climate and conditions of this world.

If humanity really has altered the climate enough to raise world temperatures, we may well have delayed the onset of an Ice Age that would rank among the worst of human catastrophes in the past several thousand years. If Professor Zharkova is correct about an imminent mini Ice Age, we can only hope that man-made global warming is a reality and can counteract its effects. If not, we could see wars over water rights and cropland in the coming decades.

C. F. van Niekerk:

150708-van-NiekirkWe’ll see wars over water and cropland in the coming decades anyhow.

Personally I wouldn’t mind a return to frozen, blizzard winters and cool summers in my area. Keeps out those fair weather folk who increasingly crowd the lakes and woods here. Let them all move to Florida!

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1 Comment

  1. Reblogged this on Brittius.

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