Hispanic Voters, Trump, and Caudillo Politics

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– 30 July 2015 –

C. F. van Niekerk:

150708-van-NiekirkDonald Trump has predicted that he will win the Hispanic vote, and the oh-so-serious journalists seem incredulous as they barely conceal their sneers.  “Impossible!” they think while they inwardly squirm, insecure behind their hubris.

But contrary to P. C. convention, a few recent polls, (for example: here, and here) indicate that Trump, despite his blunt opposition to illegal immigration, might appeal to Hispanics more than Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, or Ted Cruz do in the primaries, if not the general election.

Rubio and Cruz are of Hispanic descent. Jeb Bush, who believes that his marriage to a Mexican wife brings automatic Hispanic credentials, (hopefully that’s not why he married her) takes the Hispanic vote for granted.  But somehow Trump competes with them, even beats them, with Hispanic voters.

The Hispanic vote is very important for Republicans, you know.  It’s true because, as we know, white people are dying off and the Hispanics will inevitably become the majority one day.  Like a force of nature.  And Hispanics, you know, are natural-born conservatives.  Only they don’t know that yet.  Republicans have to convince them with inspirational—and festive—speeches over and over, you see.

festive-fox-news-latino-logo

What a festive, spicy logo! Just like the festive and spicy Latino, right? (Where’s my free chips?)

The FOX Latino logo, if you’ve never noticed, is so very hot and spicy.  Just like Hispanics are, of course.  And this depicts in a nut-shell how American political parties see Latinos.  Imagine if FOX African-American used Jamaica-mon style letters for its readers, green-yellow-and-red. There is the idea that Hispanics like hot and spicy things, immigration, Univision, and, hmm… not much else.  There was a very Anglo-sounding Hispanic woman on Limbaugh today who said that she was tired of being a targeted demographic, that Trump speaks to her like she’s an American, and she liked that! Imagine that.

fox-news-african-american

Fox News African-American logo for the stereotypical black American demographic.

Columnist and Hispanic-ologist Ruben Navarrette Jr. at USA Today says that Donald Trump could win more Hispanic votes in the Republican primary than any other candidate:

There are at least three reasons that Trump is likely to make a decent showing with Hispanic voters:

  • What’s the Republican alternative? Will Hispanics flock in droves to Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, or much of the rest of the GOP presidential field? Not likely. Only two of the other 15 “also rans” could get in Trump’s way with Hispanics in the GOP primaries: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. And instead of speaking forthrightly about issues such as immigration, the Floridians often seem cautious and reserved in their comments as if they’re afraid of alienating white people. Here’s a warning to them, and politicians everywhere: When you flinch, Hispanics notice.
  • Trump’s immigration hard line is not a deal killer with all Hispanics, many of whom want stricter border security. More than half of all Border Patrol agents  — about 52% — are Hispanic. Moreover, the closer you get to the border, the more likely you are to find Hispanics who worry about the issue that Trump brought to light: the alleged criminal element coming across the border. That was true in Arizona, where a controversial immigration law requiring police to check the legal status of anyone with whom they came in contact found pockets of support among those who lived on the front lines.
  • Hispanics are just like other Americans. And why not? In New Mexico and Arizona, some trace their family histories back seven or eight generations. Thus what appeals to many other people about Trump also appeals to them. Hispanics have been deceived and manipulated by both parties. And they’re hungry for a candidate who says what he thinks, doesn’t back down, hammers the news media, and doesn’t sugarcoat differences with opponents. Apart from substance, Trump will get points for his style which — during a hot summer — seems as refreshing as a cool breeze.

Historically Hispanics have rallied behind strong leaders. The 19th Century in Latin America was the age of caudillos, military strongmen who ruled with an iron fist. Local caudillos would rally their people into armies and clash with other caudillo armies for power, so usually a caudillo wouldn’t stay king of the mountain for very long. While politics in Latin America has somewhat moved beyond those rough and tumble days, the tendency to support the strongman remains very much a part of the Latino DNA.

But if the tendency to support the strong man is particularly powerful with Hispanics, it isn’t unique to them.

People in general are drawn to the magnetism of strong leaders. The alpha males, men who say what they mean and mean what they say, men who get things done. Our dainty, feminized society wants to paper over this part of human nature, so primal and basic as it is, but the force is there nonetheless.  This is the secret to Trump’s appeal, especially compared to the pre-staged, teleprompter-reading, finger-to-the-wind cookie-cutter candidates he is competing against.

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The time for BS is over: John Wayne just showed up. People are drawn to the strongman, men and women both, whether they want to admit it or not!

Women say that they cannot stand assertive, dominant men, the winners of life, but they surely don’t mind sleeping with them, evidence shows.  Likewise women surely cringe in disgust from the advances of the weak and always-helpful doormat.  They can’t help it.  It’s hard-wired.

Men cannot help to be drawn to the service of the strongman, the winner, the Napoleon and the Hitler.  They will throw their whole lives away to serve these narcissists.  This is hard-wired, cave man behavior also. It’s natural, and to some extent it’s even good.

Hitler described the phenomenon of the strongman, comparing electorates to swooning women:

The psyche of the great masses is not receptive to half measures or weakness.

Like a woman, whose psychic feeling is influenced less by abstract reasoning than by an undefinable, sentimental longing for complementary strength, who will submit to the strong man rather than dominate the weakling, thus the masses love the ruler rather than the suppliant, and inwardly they are far more satisfied by a doctrine which tolerates no rival than by the grant of liberal freedom…

Hitler seemed to know what he was talking about, successfully seducing a nation to match their will to his own.

Do I compare Trump to Hitler, therefore automatically losing my argument? Trump does not equal Hitler. I don’t expect Trump, should he win, to round up minorities into camps, to talk about the master race, or to prance around in a military uniform while he watches columns of tanks and troops parading past.

But the campaigns are very similar. The media of the 1930’s considered Hitler a buffoon, not to be taken seriously. The electorate, fed up with the degenerate excesses of the liberal Weimar Republic and the humiliations imposed by France and the UK, hardly cared what Hitler stood for as long as he stood up for the German people.  Hitler said the things that needed to be said.

hitler-the-buffoon

People in the 1930’s thought Hitler was a buffoon. The common Germans were fed up with the degenerate Weimar Republic and the burdens of French and British reparations.

Today the media scorn and laugh at Trump but rarely take him seriously, and conservatives are really, really pissed off at the last six or seven years!  I’m one of them!  Many will vote for Trump if they believe he will stand by his words.

I myself kind of somewhat support Donald Trump despite knowing that he really hasn’t described any of his specific stances on a variety of issues, that his history doesn’t line up with who he says he is now, that there is no telling what he would do once attaining office.  Part of me doesn’t care so long as the enemies of the country are put in their place. I admit that this is foolish, but I’m not in the mood to care.

As far as the Hispanic vote, Trump could certainly win a larger share of their vote in the primaries than the other chumps.  And in the general election, he would win just about the same low percentage of Hispanic votes that any other Republican candidate would win.  There might be more turnout by Hispanics who oppose him, but the turnout could be high from those who support him, too.  In the end, two-thirds of the Latinos will vote for the Democrat and it won’t make any difference to the Republicans at all!  It all comes down to who can turn out more of their base!  (Or how many illegals and felons Obama pardons before the election!)

As time passes, it looks more and more like Trump might stick with this campaign to the very end.  At first I thought he was an election ploy, maybe designed to run interference for Jeb, or to force a convention vote to determine the candidate, or to spoil the election with a third-party run.  Now I’m not so sure.  It seems possible that Trump could even win.  Or maybe they’ll shoot him down like they shot down Huey Long.

We’ve got a long, drawn-out fifteen months to see how this madness plays out. We all ought to be drunks on anti-depressants by then.

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  1. Reblogged this on Brittius.

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