Quick Rambling Thoughts on Trump’s Rambling Capitulation on the Government Shutdown

– 26 January 2019 –

C. F. van Niekerk:

Via RealClear Politics: Full transcript of Trump’s speech to end the shutdown:

TRUMP: Thank you very much my fellow Americans. I am very proud to announce today that we have reached a deal to end the shutdown and reopen the federal government.

There are (mainly) two ways to look at President Trump’s decision yesterday to agree to another continuing resolution to end the partial government shutdown.

Pessimism: The Wall War is Lost

The first is that Trump simply capitulated.

I did not see the speech, I listened to it on the radio, and I heard a rambling, tired old man, impotently pleading with the drooling public to just listen to him on the wall.

But there is no one out there “sitting on the fence” on this issue (har har), and a sinking man can motivate no one.

I heard defeat. Trump could have made the exact same decision for a three week CR but instead given a very short speech from a position of strength along the lines of, “I’m trying to be reasonable here, and the other side says they won’t negotiate during a shutdown, so we have three weeks. If they refuse to demonstrate good faith, then the government shutdown will continue.”

Surely Sun Tzu said something about the problems of negotiating from a point of weakness. I tried to look it up but all his quotes sound the same.

I heard no strength here, only geriatric feebleness. It’s heartbreaking.

He keeps threatening to declare a national emergency, but why the delays? Maybe he knows the courts will shoot it down. Certainly the media will take advantage of public stupidity and equate a routine declaration into national martial law. I can’t figure out this dilly-dallying.

Trump is 72-years-old and he’s got to be exhausted. And who could blame him? Almost everything he’s tried to do on immigration has been overruled, undermined, or simply impeded. No one has his back, except to stab a knife in it. And with everything else going on, maybe Trump is simply done. Beaten.

Just as WWII didn’t end with Hitler’s defeat in Stalingrad, the Wall War isn’t over. But, like Stalingrad, maybe Trump’s defeat is just a matter of time.

Optimism: Lost Battle, But Wall War Continues

Alternately, despite his weak demeanor during yesterday’s speech, the move to temporarily restore the government isn’t necessarily hopeless.

The public, trying to ‘adult,’ was blaming both sides as unreasonable. The banal “why can’t they just come together and do what’s best for everyone” complaint. It’s stupid, but that’s what I keep hearing from the regular folks.

Trump has made a series of attempts to appear like the reasonable player against obstinate children, such as his recent DACA offer. Maybe this CR is just another such attempt.

Presumably the idea behind appearing reasonable is to take less blame for the shutdown. SNAP was getting ready to have problems delivering food stamps to our best citizens. The ancient Romans knew that any disruption to their “grain dole” would lead to riots or even revolution. Just so for our own food dole. Does Trump want to recklessly take blame for that?

Trump probably wants to avoid black riots if he can. I guess a wall without riots might be better than a wall with riots. Maybe.

By relieving the shutdown for a limited time, the worst aspects of the government’s failure to appease the restless troglodytes can be avoided while the war can soon continue.

The key factor here is the fact that this is only a pause in the shutdown. Just one more short-term CR, like the one he signed at the end of December when GHWB supposedly died. Why was that temporary capitulation less harmful than this temporary capitulation?

People say that Trump has lost his leverage here because he has demonstrated that he will cave. But maybe this temporary relief from the siege will prevent the worst aspects of the shutdown while he hasn’t yet lost the tools to fight on.

Also, this delay allows Trump to make a normal State of the Union Address. The Dems and media outlets will have no reason to deny him. The propaganda value of that speech to the general public is potentially high. A very good, honest, historic-level speech could simultaneously persuade people to support the wall and ridicule and demonize the traitorous Democrats and establishment Republicans.

So people shouldn’t make too much of this continuing resolution just yet.

Surely Sun Tzu said something about tricks to draw out one’s enemies from their fortified positions.

Nothing-ism: Conclusion

I will say that the events of this shutdown have provided considerably less fun and entertainment than I had predicted. The only fizzling glob appears to be Trump. But maybe that glob can yet fizzle its way into victory here. Big maybe.

It might seem like the Wall War is over. Oliver Stone just got arrested. The Mueller probe is preparing for finale. Ruth Bader Ginsberg has already or will soon kick her bucket. Pence seems more assertive these days than usual. Why? Who knows what’s happening behind the scenes?

But it ain’t over till it’s over, to quote some Italian baseball guy.

It’s very easy to overstate the importance of ongoing events in the grand scheme of things. The dish of the present moment is over-seasoned with the taste of uncertainty. But weeks later, the leftovers lose all trace of that flavor.

If Trump ultimately fails in his Wall War, then critics will point to this moment and say this marked Trump’s undoing.

If he ultimately wins, then historians will either entirely forget this resolution, or write a footnote about his “wise political calculation.”

We shall see, but the levels of fun are quickly draining. (Like my wiper fluid. I’ve got to finally remember to get more, damn it! I keep pouring my drink on the windshield at the stop signs.)

And Trump’s temporary capitulation certainly smells like defeat.

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5 Comments

  1. I worry Trump is a last gasp of something America-like and if he fails the revolution will be complete.

    ‘GHWB supposedly died’

    Did I miss a conspiracy theory ? Does it have something to do with the mystery envelopes?

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • I have less and less doubt that Trump, along with his fellow boomers like the Clintons, Pelosi, Biden, etc., are the last rotten players in the game of Old America, though the cleanup after the game will be a drawn-out pain in the ass. The few of us who can cobble something together are a minority; it’s just a question of how important a minority, and what sort of relationship we have with New America. The process is painful to endure, because we have the temptation to hope that Old America can overcome this.

      I know about those cryptic envelopes, and they probably have something to do with the secret cabal against the outsider Trump, but this theory isn’t directly dependent on that.

      I can’t remember where I ran into this, but it’s quite simple. One short news story encapsulates it really. And there isn’t much there.

      Barack Obama visited GHWB a few days before the latter supposedly died. Bush spokesman Jim McGrath afterward posted this message on Twitter: “President @GeorgeHWBush was very pleased to receive President @BarackObama this afternoon during his visit to #Houston. The two had a very pleasant and private visit at the Bush residence, where they rekindled what was already a very warm friendship.”

      It’s just weird that Obama happened to pay Bush a visit a few days before Bush’s convenient death. The tweet sounds odd, in that Bush is depicted in a very passive way. His only response was pleasure at a private visit, which is nothing more than polite phrasing. The word “private” is odd here. Why mention that? Such a message could apply to a private visit to a dead man. Maybe this is overthinking, but it’s the timing along with the message that makes me wonder.

      The timing of the Bush’s death was very convenient in derailing the earlier shutdown which would have been harder for the Republicans to completely ignore like they did a few weeks later. The establishment goal is, presumably, to derail Trump with as little trouble as possible. Bush’s convenient death helped to achieve that.

      So I question the timing of the death somewhat.

      And, okay, (face turns red) there is the Q-Anon thing about Dec. 5 being some day of reckoning or some other BS. Supposedly the GHWB death on Nov. 30 threw a monkey wrench in this operation which depended on the earlier shutdown. A small, idiotic nagging part of me keeps opening the screen door of my brain and letting little Q-Anon moths fly in. It completely undermines any responsible analysis I try to make, yet I keep opening that door. Ugh. It’s not that I consider the predictions to be prophetic, or the anons who make up bizarre interpretations to be credible. Part of me just thinks there is some administration operative who’s high enough to shed some info from time to time to invigorate a portion of Trump’s base and antagonize some of the Leftists into making mistakes, all the while using cryptic language to help mask his identity (and his ignorance). I make predictions myself about things based on what information I can find. Perhaps Q-anon, with greater behind-the-scenes info, can make better predictions that often prove prescient but none-the-less fail sometimes. After all, Q only sees the poker hand of one player, and the other players will still make unexpected moves that requires changes to the “plan.” So, in all, on the day of my birth I probably won that one-minute lottery draw that P.T. Barnum so smugly mentioned. That winning genetic ticket called “Sucker.”

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  2. State of emergency declared!

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • You nailed it. For all the good it’ll likely do. I’ve been too busy lately to follow events very closely, but I’m starting to cynically think that this Trump period is merely the consolidation phase of the ‘progressive’ advance. I don’t really see advances into left-held ground, not even really much slowing of the rot. Even the balance of the Supreme Court seems to have restored itself with Roberts showing indications of turning into more of a moderate. The most hopeful signs come from the derangement of the non-establishment left in that they are overreaching and overreacting. I have more hope from that than I do with anything Trump is likely to do. But, as I said, it’s been difficult for me to pay attention lately so I could be way off.

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